Admittedly this is not the most intriguing time of year for tennis with all 4 Grand Slams in the rearview mirror. But the good news is that this sport barely has any kind of offseason; it just keeps going and going almost all the way through November. So we still have tennis to discuss, and that is good news for Pickswise Nation. Hopefully you tailed my picks this past week, as I nailed my Astana Open 3-star best bet of Novak Djokovic at +160 and also cashed Barbora Krejcikova at +1600 to win the Ostrava Open.
Let’s keep the momentum rolling this week with an ATP stop in Gijon, Spain and a WTA event in San Diego, California. It’s time to break down the odds to win those 2 tournaments and deliver my best bets.
Gijon Open odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Andrey Rublev +300
Pablo Carreno Busta +800
Roberto Bautista Acute +800
Sebastian Korda +1000
Ilya Ivashka +1000
Dominic Thiem +1100
Tommy Paul +1100
Andy Murray +1200
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina +1200
Benjamin Bonzi +1600
Arthur Rinderknecht +1800
Marcos Giron +1800
Adrian Mannarino +2000
3-star value play: Pablo Carreno Busta (+800)
There is a lot to like about Carreno Busta’s chances this week. He is in great form, has a favorable draw and is playing at home in Spain. Plus there are no top-5 players in the field, so Carreno Busta is the second highest-ranked player participating and #1 seed Andrey Rublev is by no means unbeatable. As the #2 seed, Carreno Busta wouldn’t have to face Rublev until the final, anyway. The world #15 won the Montreal Masters 1000 this summer and has continued to play stellar tennis; look for him to stay hot this week.
2-star value play: Tommy Paul (+1100)
Paul is without question playing the best tennis of his career. He is up to #30 in the rankings (2 spots off his highest mark) and should be even higher (would be if he had gotten points for his fourth-round performance at Wimbledon). The American’s only ATP title has come on an indoor hard court—last fall in Stockholm. That bodes well for his prospects at this fall indoor tournament in Gijon, where Paul is seeded 5th and has the best draw of anyone in the field through the first 2 rounds.
1-star value play: Dominic Thiem (+1100)
This looks like a prime opportunity for Thiem to really start picking up momentum in his comeback from a wrist injury. The 2020 US Open champion’s 2 nearest seeds are Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Francisco Cerundolo, who are clay-court specialists and have never enjoyed any kind of success indoors. As long as Thiem gets past a tricky first-rounder against Joao Sousa, I expect him to reach the semis – where he will hopefully run into Paul.
San Diego Open odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Iga Swiatek +300
Aryna Sabalenka +700
Carolina Garcia +700
Liudmila Samsonova +750
Jessica Pegula +1000
Elena Rybakina +1400
Coco Gauff +1400
Danielle Collins +1400
Maria Sakkari +1800
Veronika Kudermetova +1800
Paula Badosa +1800
Karolina Pliskova +2000
Bianca Andreescu +2000
Daria Kasatkina +2200
Leylah Fernandez +2800
3-star value play: Jessica Pegula (+1000)
The San Diego field is absolutely loaded, which is part of the reason why I don’t think world #1 Iga Swiatek has much value at +300. It’s not going to be easy to win this tournament – not for anyone. Keep in mind, too, that Swiatek just played this past week in Ostrava and lost a grueling final to Barbora Krejcikova on Sunday. Now she has to travel back across the pond to the United States, where Pegula has been resting since the US Open. The daughter of Buffalo Bills owner Terry Pegula is in awesome form and has one of the better draws this week, including a first-round bye as the #4 seed.
2-star value play: Aryna Sabalenka (+700)
I have been on the Sabalenka bandwagon a lot since the start of the summer and she has come close multiple times, including a semifinal appearance at the US Open (lost to Swiatek, the eventual champion, in a 3-setter). Like Pegula, Sabalenka has not played since leaving New York. She will be well-rested and the San Diego conditions should suit her big-hitting game. Sabalenka could have a tough opener against Veronika Kudermetova in round two, but being on the side of the bracket away from Swaitek and Pegula is good.
1-star value play: Danielle Collins (+1400)
Collins also finds herself in the bottom half of the draw. The former University of Virginia star is coming off a fourth-round performance at the US Open (lost to Sabalenka in 3 sets) and she finished runner-up at this year’s Australian Open. One of her WTA titles came last summer in San Jose, so she knows how to get the job done on outdoor hard courts. Collins has been resting up since the festivities at Flushing Meadows and should be fired up for the stretch run of the season.
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