Chiefs vs. Raiders player props, odds, bets, Monday Night Football picks: Patrick Mahomes over 275.5 yards

The Raiders vs. Chiefs rivalry hasn’t been much of one since Patrick Mahomes went under center for Kansas City in 2018. He sports a 7-1 record versus the Raiders entering their matchup on Monday Night Football at 8:15 pm ET. Mahomes has tossed just three picks over those eight games, which has many jumping on Under 0.5 interceptions (-194) for his NFL player props from Caesars Sportsbook. Meanwhile, his counterpart Derek Carr has 10 INTs over those eight games, seemingly giving value to Over 0.5 picks (-111) for his MNF props.

Carr did throw three interceptions in Week 1 but has just one total pick over his last three games. Mahomes has INTs in back-to-back contests, so making these prop picks may be a little harder than they seemed on the surface. Before making any NFL prop bets for Monday Night Football, you need to see the Chiefs vs. Raiders NFL prop predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 140-105 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

It can also be used to crush NFL prop picks. The model entered Week 4 with a 22-10 record on NFL prop picks this season, returning almost $1,000 for $100 players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

With Raiders vs. Chiefs on Monday Night Football approaching, the model has evaluated the NFL player props from Caesars and found five strong bets. You can only see them here.

Top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs vs. Raiders

After simulating Raiders vs. Chiefs 10,000 times, the model predicts that Mahomes goes over 275.5 passing yards at a -117 payout (risk $117 to win $100). Mahomes is averaging one yard more than the bar at 276.5 yards this season, but his career numbers against the Raiders should inspire much more confidence. The 2018 MVP has averaged 318.3 passing yards versus the divisional rival, which is his second highest against any team he’s played at least three times.

Six of his eight career games against the Raiders have gone over 275.5 passing yards, and Vegas’ defense this year would lead you to believe it will be seven of nine after Monday. While the Raiders boast a top-10 run defense, they rank just 22nd against the pass. Similarly prolific QBs like Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray have already gone over 275.5 yards versus them this year but neither of those two can match Mahomes’ arm talent or receiving options. The model has Mahomes falling just shy of 300 yards, but his 296-yard projection makes the Over the smart prop pick. See other NFL props here.

How to make NFL player prop bets for Chiefs vs. Raiders

In addition, the model says another star goes over his yardage with a plus-money prop payout you’ll want to jump on. You need to see the model’s analysis before making any Raiders vs. Chiefs prop bets for Monday Night Football.

Which Chiefs vs. Raiders prop bets should you target for Monday Night Football? And which plus-money prop is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see the top Raiders vs. Chiefs props, all from the model that’s up almost $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks.